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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."