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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

But the latest field is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent strugglers rising together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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